Who are the Big Movers in the race to be Prime Minister?

With Theresa May announcing her resignation, who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland?

Next Prime Minister Odds

 

Update 01.07.19

With just two contestants remaining, the race to be next Tory leader is certainly hotting up. This week is certain to be a crucial one given that the postal ballots are due to be sent to the Conservative Party membership this coming weekend (Saturday, July 6th). Boris Johnson remains a country mile in front of Jeremy Hunt in the leadership race although there is still three weeks of campaigning to be done and this could change completely.

Nevertheless Hunt hasn’t done himself any favours by changing his stance of a no-deal Brexit and his latest decision to willingly support leaving the EU without a deal in place should this be the only option has left his supporters disillusioned and unsure as to where he does actually stand. Indeed any future chance of tack by Hunt will be taken with a pinch of salt and this latest development may prove to be pivotal in the leadership race.

As far as Boris Johnson is concerned, there is plenty of affection for him from the Tory membership although doubts remain as to whether he would make good Prime Minister material. Boris certainly gives audiences a buzz but thus far Hunt has come across as the more polished orator and as such, we envisage his campaign growing stronger over the next few weeks.

 

Next Prime Minister – William Hill Odds

 

1/8  –  Boris Johnson

5/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

 


 

Update 19.06.19

Boris Johnson may be the one to beat in the race to succeed Theresa May in 10 Downing Street, however many of the leading bookmakers have slashed the odds on Rory Stewart becoming next leader of the Tory Party. Stewart fared far better than expected in the second round of voting with 37 votes going his way, this being just 4 less than Michael Gove but a huge 89 less than huge odds-on favourite Boris Johnson. Dominic Raab failed to get the required number of votes and was eliminated from the race while Sajid Javid scraped through with 33 votes. A further vote will take place tonight and the contender with the fewest votes will be eliminated, most punters envisaging that Sajid Javid will be next to bow out. Two more votes will be held on Thursday and if needed a further ballot will be held in order to bring the total number of candidates down to two. Once two candidates remain, the 160,000 Conservative Party members will be asked to vote on who they wish to lead the party.

 

Next Prime Minister – William Hill Odds

 

1/7  –  Boris Johnson

8/1  –  Rory Stewart

12/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

20/1 –  Michael Gove

 

Update 18.06.19

Boris Johnson failed to appear on a scheduled TV debate with the other Tory Party leader contenders last week although that doesn’t appear to have dented his chances of succeeding Theresa May as Prime Minister. Indeed the former Secretary of State’s chances of becoming the next incumbent of 10 Downing Street have grown stronger and punters continue to back him in their droves, the bookmakers reacting by continually slashing his odds. Johnson is now just 1/7 to become next Prime Minister of the UK & Northern Ireland with closest challenger Rory Stewart way out at 10/1.

Stewart fared pretty well in the TV debate and his popularity appears to have risen as a result, therefore he is now being seen as the man who could most likely topple Johnson from his lofty perch at the top of the betting market. He still has some way to go however and the likelihood is that Boris Johnson will be the next Prime Minister, indeed it really is only a matter of time before he is appointed in this role.

 

Next Prime Minister – BetVictor Odds

 

1/7  –  Boris Johnson

10/1 – Rory Stewart

16/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

25/1 –  Michael Gove

50/1 –  Dominic Raab

50/1 –  Sajid Javid

 

Update 13.06.19

The odds on Boris Johnson becoming next Prime Minister continue to tumble with the former secretary of state now just 2/5 to succeed Theresa May in the coming weeks. Johnson launched his leadership campaign yesterday with pledges to aim for a “sensible, orderly departure” from the European Union, a no-deal scenario being very much a “last resort” in order to ensure that the UK leaves the Union by 31st October.

Johnson apologised for any offence caused by comments he made about Muslim women and he refused point blank to clarify whether or not he had ever used cocaine. He used his time as Mayor of London as evidence of his track record with claims that he cut crime, improved social conditions and added to the housing stock.

As things stand, Johnson remains head and shoulders above the rest of the candidates in the battle to be next Prime Minister with closest rival, Jeremy Hunt, a country mile behind in the betting market at odds of 11/2, some bookies going as high as 7/1. Andrea Leadsom is out at 9/1 while Michael Gove is way behind at 16/1.

 

Next Prime Minister – BetVictor Odds

 

2/5  –  Boris Johnson

11/2 –  Jeremy Hunt

9/1  –  Andrea Leadsom

16/1 –  Michael Gove

20/1 –  Rory Stewart

22/1 –  Sajid Javid

25/1 –  Dominic Raab

 

Update 11.06.19

Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt has some senior MPs fighting his corner and as such he appears to be the main rival to current betting-market leader Boris Johnson in the race to succeed Theresa May as Prime Minister. Hunt received a couple of notable endorsements in his recent campaign launch, Brexiteer Penny Mordaunt announcing her support and former Home Secretary Amber Rudd also declaring her backing, the latter naming him as the “best man for the job”. The bookmakers reacted swiftly to this latest development with some firms halving their odds on Hunt being next into 10 Downing Street. Indeed Hunt is now second favourite in the betting markets at odds of 7/2 although he remains some way behind odds-on Boris Johnson as the race hots up.

Punters have been quick to back the Foreign Secretary with a reported 26% of all bets being aimed in his direction, a feeble 16% going on Boris Johnson. Nevertheless while the common ground between all contenders for the position of Tory leader has thus far been to take shots at Boris Johnson, the fact is that Johnson doesn’t appear to have been harmed in the slightest by being the focus of their ire. Perhaps this is what makes him the best man for the job! There’s little doubt that he is the man to beat.

Michael Gove’s hopes of becoming next leader of the Tory Party as well as next Prime Minister appear to have been dashed following revelations of drug use in the past and he is now as high as 20/1 for the post having been just 7/2 a couple of weeks ago.

 

Update 10.06.19

Amidst all the controversy surrounding many of the candidates for next Prime Minister, Boris Johnson remains relatively unscathed and he is still massive odds-on favourite to be next at 10 Downing Street. Theresa May is no longer leader of the Tory Party although she will remain in her position as PM until a suitable successor has been found and as things stand it is looking extremely likely that Boris Johnson will take the reins following her departure.

Nevertheless there is a very real danger that Johnson could rip the party apart and already there are very clear signs that there is going to be trouble ahead. Fellow leadership contender Rory Stewart has accused Johnson of not being honest with regard to his Brexit plans and he has also blasted the former foreign secretary’s “swaggering machismo” which he claimed could put at risk the United Kingdom’s relations with the rest of Europe.

Elsewhere, Michael Gove was until recently a serious contender for 10 Downing Street although his campaign has become mired in controversy following admissions that he has used cocaine in the past. As such his odds on becoming next Prime Minister have lengthened substantially to as much as 25/1 in some quarters and Johnson’s main rival for the position now appears to be Jeremy Hunt.

 

Next Prime Minister – BetVictor Odds

 

4/7  –  Boris Johnson

3/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

8/1  –  Andrea Leadsom

16/1 –  Michael Gove

20/1 –  Rory Stewart

20/1 –  Sajid Javid

 

 

Update 07.06.19

The odds on Boris Johnson becoming next Prime Minister of the UK continue to tumble with most bookmakers now going just 4/6 that he’s the next incumbent of 10 Downing Street. Current PM Theresa May steps down as leader of the Tory Party today although the will remain in her position as Prime Minister for another six weeks at least and as things stand it is looking increasingly likely that Johnson will be her successor.

Michael Gove has been Johnson’s principal challenger for some time now although while he remains in second position in the betting market, his odds have lengthened from 9/2 to as much as 8/1 in some quarters.

One of the key reasons for Johnson’s continued lead in the betting is the fact that many ‘Remainer’ MPs are starting to give him their support, seeing him as their best hope of softening Brexit or even reversing it altogether. Many see Boris as extremely “malleable” and there is hope amongst these retainers that he may even order a second referendum to take parliament out of its logjam.

One remainer senior minister told the media:

“Boris is malleable. Boris will do what is in Boris’s own best interests, as and when the time comes.

“If that means going ahead with a second referendum as the only way through the impasse, then that’s what he will do.

“Some colleagues who don’t see eye to eye with Boris see that as their best opportunity.”

This will certainly be music to the ears of Boris Johnson as he looks to gather support for his leadership bid and he is likely to use this perceived “malleability’ to his advantage, hence his continually shortening odds.

 

Next Prime Minister – BetVictor Odds

 

4/6  –  Boris Johnson

6/1  –  Michael Gove

8/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

10/1 –  Andrea Leadsom

20/1 –  Dominic Raab

22/1 –  Rory Stewart

22/1 –  Penny Mordaunt

 

———————————————————————————————————–

 

Update 05.06.19

For the very first time, Boris Johnson is now odds-on across all the main bookmakers to be the next Prime Minister of the UK, BetVictor going 4/5 that he will take the reins from Theresa May in the next few days.

Four of the remaining ten candidates for the Tory leadership survived a challenging test yesterday with Boris Johnson, Rory Stewart, Sajid Javid and Andrea leads making their cases to a large chunk of the parliamentary party. Four more will be put to the test tonight while the rest will take to the mic on Monday.

The winner by all accounts was Boris Johnson who addressed an audience of over 100 MPs while Javid and Stewart commanded an attendance of around eighty each. Leadsom spoke to a thinner audience of 42 and one can only envisage her bid coming to an end soon.

Audience size clearly matters given that the extent to which a candidate can attract MPs is a clear reflection of their draw and campaign organisation’s strength. On that scale alone, Johnson was clear winner with a room packed full of hard Brexit supporters. Thus his cause has been strengthened substantially at this relatively early stage of proceedings and the bookmakers have responded by slashing his odds even further.

 

Next Prime Minister – BetVictor Odds

 

4/5  –  Boris Johnson

9/2  –  Michael Gove

10/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

10/1 –  Andrea Leadsom

16/1 –  Dominic Raab

22/1 –  Rory Stewart

 

—————————————————————————————————–

 

 

Update 03.06.19

As the race to be next Prime Minister rumbles on, Boris Johnson remains head and shoulders above the rest in the outright winner market with most bookmakers going 7/4 that he is next in 10 Downing Street. Nevertheless the list of contenders increased to thirteen over the weekend with Sam Gyimah throwing his hat into the ring. The former universities minister quit over Theresa May’s Brexit plan and he has stated that he would vote remain shock a further poll be carried out, however he wouldn’t campaign against Brexit were he to be elected as next Prime Minister.

With regard to the other contenders, Andrea Leadsom has stated that she would be seeking a managed exit from the European Union by the end of October although she would also introduce legislation protecting citizens’ rights and explore alternatives to the stumbling block that is the Irish border.

Home Secretary Sajid Javid is also a contdnesr in the leadership contest and he has stated that he wants to leave the EU with a deal in place, however he also admitted that it would be ‘responsible’ to prepare for a no-deal scenario.

 

Next Prime Minister – BetVictor Odds

 

13/8 –  Boris Johnson

7/2  –  Michael Gove

6/1  –  Andrea Leadsom

9/1  –  Dominic Raab

12/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

16/1 –  Rory Stewart

22/1 –  Penny Mordaunt

22/1 –  Sajid Javid

33/1 –  Steve Baker

33/1 –  James Cleverly

40/1 –  Matthew Hancock

 

———————————————————————————————————

 

Update 31.05.19

Boris Johnson may be hogging most of the headlines right now with regard to the leadership contest, however one of the biggest movers in the betting markets over the past few days has been Secretary of State for International Development Rory Stewart. The Penrith & the Border MP has been receiving plenty of backing over the past 48 hours or so and as a direct result the bookmakers have slashed his odds on becoming next leader of the Tory Party from 16/1 to 10/1.

Nevertheless while Boris Johnson’s campaign has been overshadowed by his looming court appearance, Rory Stewart isn’t whiter than white himself given that he admitted to smoking opium whilst at a wedding in Iran. This in itself could lead to a situation whereby he could be banned from entering the United States under the 1952 Immigration & Nationality Act.

The 46-year-old launched his bid for leadership of the Tory Party last month and he has been particularly scathing of those who would be happy to see a no-deal Brexit pushed through, the MP saying that it would be “a huge mistake, damaging, unnecessary and I think also dishonest”.

 

Next Prime Minister – BetVictor Odds

 

2/1  –  Boris Johnson

3/1  –  Michael Gove

6/1  –  Dominic Raab

6/1  –  Andrea Leadsom

10/1 –  Rory Stewart

14/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

 

————————————————————————————————————————–

 

Update 30.05.19

Boris Johnson remains out-and-out favourite to take the reins from Theresa May next month, however his odds have lengthened to as much as 9/4 following the news that he could be summoned to court within days for allegedly lying during the Brexit referendum nearly three years ago. The frontrunner for the Tory leadership contest was apparently ordered to attend a hearing with regard to allegations that he lied with a claim that the United Kingdom sends around £350 million to the European Union each week. The former foreign secretary’s allies have jumped to his defence and have attacked the decision by the courts to summons him over these allegations of misconduct whilst in a public office. This particular case has been brought by Marcus Ball who is looking to achieve a legal first by bringing a private prosecution against a sitting MP.

This may well influence the Tory party’s decision on whether or not Johnson would be a suitable replacement for Theresa May and as such his odds have slipped in some quarters to 9/4. Michael Gove is now being seen as Johnson’s main rival in the leadership contest, the Secretary of State for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs now just 7/2 to be next in 10 Downing Street.

 

Next Prime Minister – Paddy Power Odds

 

9/4 –  Boris Johnson

7/2 –  Michael Gove

5/1 –  Dominic Raab

5/1 –  Andrea Leadsom

14/1 – Rory Stewart

16/1 – Jeremy Hunt

25/1 – Sajid Javid

25/1 – Penny Mordaunt

25/1 – James Cleverly

 

———————————————————————————————————————

 

Update 29.05.19

Boris Johnson remains favourite to be next in Number 10 Downing Street, however will his upcoming court appearance over alleged misconduct in the EU referendum damage his chances of becoming next Tory leader?

Here are the leading contenders as things stand…

 

Boris Johnson – 6/4

Johnson is hugely popular with the Tory grassroots and a Times poll showed that he would be the first choice of 39% of the party, Dominic Raab trailing him with around 13%. As such it would be difficult for party members not to make Johnson one of the final two and while he has been somewhat quiet of late, this is almost certainly deliberate.

Michael Gove – 9/2

Environment secretary Michael Gove has been racking up plenty of endorsements of late and he has announced that he would offer free citizenship to all EU citizens residing in the UK prior to the referendum. He claims that this delivers on the ‘Vote Leave’ promise and it certainly serves as a distinct nod to the liberals in the party ranks.

Dominic Raab – 5/1

Does a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse help in a leadership contest? Dominic Raab certainly believes so and the former Brexit secretary provided us with this image awash with tasteful hues of pastel. Raab has been pushing hard amongst the more ‘core’ constituents of the Tory MPs and he is third favourite to take the reins after the departure of Theresa May.

Andrea Leadsom – 13/2

Leadsom recently quit her role as House of Commons leader although she has earned for herself a hard-fought reputation as someone who has managed to push through parliamentary reform. She was certainly one of the more vocal and outspoken Brexiters around the cabinet table although her list of endorsements is looking somewhat thin.

 

 

Update 28.05.19

Michael Gove has decided to throw his hat into the ring and confirm his running to be the next leader of the Conservative Party, the punters backing him in their droves since he announced his intentions. The Member of Parliament for Surry Heath has seen around 19% of all bets being aimed towards him in the betting market following the news that he was to stand in the race for a successor to Theresa May and as a result his odds have been slashed from 10/1 to as low as 9/2 in places, a best price of 5/1 available with William Hill Bookmakers.

This puts Gove in third place in the betting market with Boris Johnson still firm favourite at best odds of 7/4 and Dominic Raab shortening in recent days to 4/1. Clearly the odds on the ‘Next Conservative party Leader’ are similar to those for ‘Next Prime Minister’ with Boris Johnson 7/4 favourite ahead of 4/1 shot Dominic Raab and 5/1 punt Michael Gove. These prices indicate conclusively that Johnson is the one to beat in this race although there could well be many more twists and turns before the race comes to an end.

Indeed while Johnson remains the most likely successor to Theresa May, Gove was always expected to be one of the early frontrunners and this has proven to be correct at the time of writing.

Sajid Javid has become the latest Tory MP to announce his standing for next leader of the party. The Home Secretary is the ninth member to confirm that he is running in the race and he joins Rory Stewart, Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, Matt Hancock, Dominic Raab and Michael Gove.

 

Update 27.05.19

The race to be next Tory leader is now very much in full swing and Boris Johnson remains head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the chasing pack, the bookmakers continuing to slash his odds on being the next incumbent at 10 Downing Street.

Following Theresa May’s announcement that she was to resign on 7th June, eight politicians have put their names forward in the battle to succeed her and Boris Johnson currently appears to be something of a shoo-in as far as punters are concerned, 10Bet Bookmakers now going just 23/17 that he becomes next prime Minister. Johnson is a keen advocate of Brexit and he has already made it clear that a ‘No Deal’ exit from the European Union wouldn’t be ruled out under his leadership.

Nevertheless whoever takes the reins of the Conservative party will have a tough task ahead of him/her with internal squabbling and personal self-interest making a Brexit deal all-but-impossible. Indeed the obstacles faced by Theresa May still need to be overcome and the big question is, does Boris Johnson have what it takes to unify the party – indeed all parties – and find a way out of the current predicament. The thrashing by the Brexit Party in last week’s European elections certainly won’t have helped matters and the new leader – whoever it turns out to be – must ensure that the apparent end of political pragmatism in the voting public doesn’t resurface in the next general election.

Hard times ahead!

 

Update 24.05.19

Theresa May has announced that she will resign from her position as Prime Minister on June 7th 2019, an emotional speech on the steps of 10 Downing Street bringing the news earlier this morning and prompting a race to find a suitable successor. This news will come as no surprise to anyone although in reality it really is that last thing that the country needs in the midst of a crisis as big as Brexit. A new Conservative leader and Prime Minister will need to be found as soon as possible and in that regard, Boris Johnson remains head and shoulders above the rest of the chasing pack in the betting markets, BetVictor Bookmakers going 6/4 that he is the next incumbent of 10 Downing Street.

Johnson has been a keen advocate of Brexit and he will now be in a strong position to pursue his beliefs as Prime Minister. He will certainly have a tough assignment ahead of him should he succeed in becoming Prime Minister when he faces the very same obstacles that Theresa May faced in her time in office. Perhaps he would play his hand better, we might soon find out!

 

Next Conservative Party leader – BetVictor Odds

 

6/4  –  Boris Johnson

9/2  –  David Lidington

11/2 –  Dominic Raab

10/1 –  Michael Gove

10/1 –  Andrea Leadsom

14/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

20/1 –  Sajid Javid

20/1 –  Penny Mordaunt

 

Update 17.05.19

Prime Minister Theresa May has been told that she needs to leave 10 Downing Street by June 30th at the very latest as MPs run out of patience waiting for her to announce her exit date. The PM has been attempting to prolong her precarious position and keep her Brexit deal alive, however she has been losing her grip on power and the race will now be on to find a successor.

Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement with the European Union has already been rejected on three occasions by the House of Commons and she has been under huge pressure to resign after her party lost 1300 councillors in the local elections recently. Indeed many Tory MPs are less than happy about May’s proposed cross-party talks with the Labour Party as she looks to get her withdrawal agreement passed through parliament.

Indeed the campaigning for a successor to May has already started in earnest with Boris Johnson throwing his hat into the ring, as expected. Johnson is a staunch supporter of Brexit and he has said that he is determined to see it become a reality as soon as is practically possible.

Johnson remains firm favourite to be the nest leader of the Conservative party with Betfred Bookmakers going 2/1 that he is appointed, way ahead of second favourite Dominic Raab at 5/1.

 

Next Conservative Party Leader:  Betfred Odds

 

2/1  –  Boris Johnson

5/1  –  Dominic Raab

8/1  –  Michael Gove

11/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

16/1 –  Matthew Hancock

20/1 –  Rory Stewart

20/1 –  Sajid Javid

20/1 –  Penny Mordaunt

20/1 –  Andrea Leadsom

 

———————————————————————————————————————-

 

Update: 16.05.19

Boris Johnstone remains favourite to be next in charge of the Conservative Party in the event that PM Theresa May resigns in the near future. The Prime Minister is coming under huge pressure following her failure to resolve the Brexit wrangle and this pressure will surely get much worse next week with a predicted battering by the Brexit Party in the UK Parliamentary elections on 23rd May. All of this appears to be playing into Boris Johnson’s hands and the former Foreign Secretary remains firm favourite to take the reins following May’s inevitable departure. Indeed while his odds have remained constant at 5/2, those of his main opponent have slipped considerably with previous second-favourite Michael Gove out to 7/1 (from 9/2). Dominic Raab remains in the frame with his odds shortening slightly from 7/1 to 6/1 while Jeremy Hunt remains 10/1. By far the biggest mover has been Secretary of State for International Development Rory Stewart who’s odds have been slashed from around 66/1 just a few weeks to just 16/1 with Betfred Bookmakers.

Stewart has openly declared that he would like to be Prime Minister, thus becoming the first cabinet minister to do so. The MP for Penrith & The Border was appointed in his current position in the cabinet earlier this month and when asked whether he would throw his hat into the ring in the event of a leadership contest, said “yes”. He nevertheless insisted that he wasn’t keen for Theresa May to resign from her position at the present time.

 

Next Conservative Party Leader:  Betfred Odds

 

5/2  –  Boris Johnson

6/1  –  Dominic Raab

7/1  –  Michael Gove

10/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

16/1 –  Rory Stewart

16/1 –  Matthew Hancock

20/1 –  Sajid Javid

20/1 –  Penny Mordaunt

20/1 –  Andrea Leadsom

 

————————————————————————————————————

 

24.04.19

The Brexit debacle appears to be playing right into the hands of the former Foreign Secretary with Boris Johnson’s odds on becoming next Conservative party leader shortening to as little as 5/2 with Betfred Bookmakers. The last time that Johnson’s price was this short was when PM Theresa May had failed to win a majority in the general election in June 2017 and he found himself just 5/4 to take the reins on that occasion.

In the past 24 hours or so, Johnson has seen around 49% of all bets in the market aimed towards him as punters react to the news that he tops the polls in the ‘Next Tory Leader’ run-off poll conducted by ConHome.

Find the best Politics free bets at our Bookmaker Free Bets page

Johnson has become unpopular amongst some of his ‘remainer’ parliamentary colleagues although his promise of a hard Brexit has proven to be a hit amongst vast swathes of the Conservative membership throughout the country. Johnson also finds himself 3/1 favourite to be the next Prime Minister, well ahead of Michael Gove at 5/1 and Jeremy Corbyn at 11/2.

 

Next Conservative Party Leader:  Betfred Odds

 

5/2  –  Boris Johnson

9/2  –  Michael Gove

7/1  –  Dominic Raab

10/1 –  Jeremy Hunt

14/1 –  Sajid Javid

16/1 –  Matthew Hancock

20/1 –  Andrea Leadsom

 

Next Prime Minister

 

3/1  –  Boris Johnson

5/1 –  Michael Gove

11/2 –  Jeremy Corbyn

10/1 –  Dominic Raab