Germany v Portugal Nations League Free Bets & Match Preview

Germany v Portugal Nations League Free Bets & Match Preview

 

Wednesday, 4th June 2025. Kick-off: 8pm

 

Nations League Semi-Final Showdown – Germany Host Portugal in Clash of Firepower and Fragility

Well, the Champions League final may have only just wrapped up with confetti still clinging to the advertising boards, but there’s no rest for the wicked – or UEFA, for that matter. We’re heading straight back to the Allianz Arena – yes, again – as Germany take on Portugal in the first semi-final of the UEFA Nations League this Wednesday, 4th June at 8pm UK time.

If the Allianz thought it could have a quiet week after hosting Europe’s club showpiece, it clearly hadn’t checked the UEFA rota. Now it’s the turn of the national sides, with Germany hoping their home comforts will serve them well, while Portugal arrive hoping to rain all over their parade – or at least upset the odds and grab a ticket to the final.

 

The Hosts with the Most (Expectations)

Believe it or not, this is Germany’s first ever appearance in the Nations League finals. And what better way to mark the occasion than by hosting the whole lot? That’s like turning up late to your own dinner party and still demanding to sit at the head of the table.

Despite initial scepticism ahead of Euro 2024 – where optimism in Germany was about as rare as a VAR check without controversy – the national team has turned things around. Under Julian Nagelsmann, they’re now being whispered about as genuine contenders for World Cup 2026, and their record at home has certainly helped fuel the belief: just one defeat in their last 11 on German soil, that blemish being a quarter-final loss to Spain last summer.

And their route to the semi-finals? Straightforward-ish. They comfortably won a group containing Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia-Herzegovina, racking up 14 points from a possible 18. Their quarter-final with Italy, though, was a different story. Leading 5-1 on aggregate at half-time in the second leg, they somehow allowed the Azzurri to score three in the second half. Throw in a VAR-overturned penalty and what should’ve been a procession turned into a nail-biter. Still, through they went.

Now, they’re favourites not only for this match but for the whole tournament, and betting sites across the UK, including leading online bookmaker William Hill, have them leading the outright market. Not a bad time to grab their Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets offer if you’re considering a cheeky wager on Nagelsmann’s men edging closer to silverware in their own backyard.

 

Portugal – Pretty, but Perilous

As for Portugal, they’re no strangers to Nations League glory – they were the inaugural winners in 2019. Now, they’re gunning to become the first nation to win it twice. Easy enough, right? Just get past Germany in Germany and move into the final. Piece of cake.

Unfortunately for Roberto Martinez, recent form and history are not particularly on his side. Since Euro 2024, where Portugal barely got out of bed (losing to Georgia, scraping past Slovenia on penalties, then falling to France), the pressure has mounted.

To be fair, Martinez did get a bit of a bounce in the Nations League groups, going unbeaten against Croatia, Scotland, and Poland. But their quarter-final performance against Denmark didn’t exactly scream “champions-in-waiting.” After a limp 1-0 defeat in the first leg, Portugal were staring at the exit until Francisco Trincao dragged them back from the brink with a late equaliser in normal time, before giving them the lead in extra time.

So here they are, the outsiders of the final four, but armed with a battle-hardened squad – many of whom were part of that 2019 triumph – and a desperate need to reassert themselves before World Cup qualifying kicks off in September. If they can pull off a surprise in Munich, Martinez might just quieten the doubters. For now.

 

The History – Painful Reading for Portugal

This isn’t exactly a new rivalry. Portugal and Germany have locked horns in all the major tournaments over the last two decades, and it’s been nothing short of a horror show for the Portuguese.

Germany have beaten Portugal in the 2006 and 2014 World Cups, as well as Euro 2008, Euro 2012, and Euro 2020. That’s five straight wins, in case you’ve lost count. The last time Portugal got one over the Germans in a competitive fixture? That would be Euro 2000, which is now old enough to order a pint in most of Europe.

Let’s just say, Ronaldo – set to win his 220th cap – has had better records against most other countries. His presence will still be significant, but his track record against Germany reads more like a polite attendance list than a highlight reel.

 

Team Talk – Ter Stegen Returns, Kimmich Hits 100

In terms of team news, Marc-André ter Stegen is back between the sticks for Germany after nine months out, and he’ll expect to start ahead of the equally reliable if slightly less headline-grabbing Oliver Baumann and Alexander Nübel.

In midfield, Joshua Kimmich is the man of the moment, poised to make his 100th appearance for the national side. His performances against Italy were dazzling – not only scoring but creating four of Germany’s five goals across the two legs. He’s arguably the conductor of this German orchestra and, if they’re to sweep aside Portugal, he’ll need to be in full flow again.

Leon Goretzka and Pascal Gross should offer some midfield muscle and mischief, while the creative sparks will likely come from Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sané, and the supremely gifted Florian Wirtz. Up front, Deniz Undav – the late-blooming goal poacher – will look to continue his purple patch.

Defensively, there are absences. Antonio Rüdiger, Nico Schlotterbeck, Jamal Musiala and Yann Bisseck are all unavailable, and Kai Havertz hasn’t been risked. But this German side has depth – and a roaring home crowd.

 

Portugal’s Plans – Experience with a Hint of Youth

For Portugal, Diogo Costa should start in goal behind a defence of Diogo Dalot, Rúben Dias, Antonio Silva, and Nuno Mendes – all familiar faces with a wealth of top-level experience.

Midfield could see a blend of silk and steel: Bernardo Silva – now freshly into three figures himself after winning his 100th cap – will pull the strings alongside Vitinha, Joao Neves, and possibly Bruno Fernandes, who loves a through ball almost as much as he loves a dramatic gesture to the referee.

Up front, Diogo Jota provides energy and unpredictability, while Cristiano Ronaldo, rumoured to be leaving Al-Nassr, will once again lead the line. Because of course he will.

The only absentee from their quarter-final squad is Geovany Quenda, replaced by Rodrigo Mora, a promising forward expected to join Chelsea shortly – though probably not troubling the starting XI just yet.

 

The Verdict – Germany to March On

Let’s not beat about the bush – this one has goals written all over it. Germany and Portugal have been the two highest-scoring sides in this season’s Nations League, and given the talent on show, we’re expecting a bit of a shootout.

Portugal might have the stronger starting XI on paper, but questions linger about Martinez’s tactical stubbornness – particularly his insistence on starting Ronaldo, whose off-the-ball contributions have dwindled faster than the battery on a smartphone in winter.

With the home crowd behind them, and a slightly more coherent tactical identity, Germany should have enough to get over the line. We’ll go with a 3-1 win for the hosts – plenty of entertainment, a couple of ropey VAR moments, and maybe a classic Ronaldo strop thrown in for good measure.

And if you’re having a flutter, don’t forget that William Hill’s Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets offer could be the perfect way to spice up your evening. Just don’t use it on 0-0. Trust us.

 

From a Betting Perspective

 

Let’s cut to the chase: Germany are the favourites. Not just here, but to win the whole shebang. They’ve finally remembered how to play football, and at just shy of even money – 5/6 if you’re having a punt – the bookies offering a wealth of free bets for new customers, are backing Julian Nagelsmann’s lads to get the job done. Portugal? They’re out at 10/3, and if you’re banking on the draw, it’s there at 13/5 – presumably for those who enjoy suffering through extra time and possibly penalties.

 

Can’t We All Just Qualify Nicely?

If you fancy your bet a little less dramatic than an outright winner, there’s the To Qualify market. Germany are a firm 10/21, while Portugal sit at 15/8, which feels a little generous for a side that needed divine intervention (or at least a Trincao) to scrape past Denmark.

But that’s Portugal under Roberto Martinez – an enigmatic mix of tactical chaos, generational talent, and a 39-year-old man named Cristiano Ronaldo still demanding every free kick within 35 yards.

 

First Goalscorer: Who Opens the Floodgates?

Now then, first goalscorer betting – the holy grail of football punting. It’s also, coincidentally, the fastest route to rage-quitting your betting app after five minutes when your man fluffs it from six yards.

At the top of the market? It’s Deniz Undav and Cristiano Ronaldo, both at 6/1. One is Germany’s latest striking sensation; the other is a Portuguese legend with more hair products than most airport duty-free shops. Undav is in form, mobile, and only occasionally trips over his own feet. Ronaldo, meanwhile, is as likely to score a 40-yard thunderbolt as he is to scowl at the fourth official when he’s subbed off in the 75th minute.

Just behind them, you’ve got Niclas Füllkrug, Florian Wirtz, and Nick Woltemade all hovering at 13/2, with Serge Gnabry at 15/2 and Leroy Sané at 8/1. All capable, all unpredictable, all likely to make you question your life choices when they blaze over from three yards.

Further down, there’s value to be found – Diogo Jota at 11/1 could be tempting if he starts, while Trincao and Francisco Conceicao offer long-shot glory at 15/1. For the optimists, Bruno Fernandes at 13/1 might appeal, assuming he can finish one of the many chances he’ll create for himself.

If you believe in miracles, Leon Goretzka, Pedro Neto and Tom Bischof are all knocking about in the 14/1–17/1 range. And if you’ve completely lost the plot? Bernardo Silva, Pascal Gross and Joshua Kimmich are each 25/1. Worth a quid just to sound smug in the pub when it inevitably goes in off someone’s shin.

Oh, and for the masochists: No Goalscorer is 12/1. So if you’re the sort of person who enjoys nil-nils and spreadsheets, you’re sorted.

 

Anytime Goalscorers – The Safer Bet for the Cautiously Reckless

Let’s say you’re not sold on your man bagging the opener but think he’ll find the net eventually. That’s where the Anytime Goalscorer market comes in.

Nick Woltemade leads the field at 2/1, with Ronaldo (41/20) and Undav (21/10) close behind. Wirtz, Fullkrug, Sané – all hovering between 12/5 and 11/4. If you’re looking for drama, flair and the occasional diving header into Row Z, there’s something for everyone.

Sneaky value? Diogo Jota at 15/4, Bruno Fernandes at 17/4, and Francisco Conceicao at 21/4. These are the ones to watch if you fancy a bit of chaos in the second half.

Fancy something a bit more obscure? Felix Nmecha, Robin Gosens and Robert Andrich at 15/2 and 8/1 fall under the “worth a fiver for a laugh” category. And if you really want to be a hipster about it, Ruben Dias, Diogo Dalot and even Antonio Silva are out at 22/1 to 25/1. Headers from corners, late set pieces, or possibly a deflection off the backside – they all count.

 

Hat-Trick Heroes – Or Utter Delusion?

Now we enter the truly bonkers territory: the Hat-Trick market. If you think Cristiano Ronaldo has one last hurrah in him, he’s 75/1 to net three. That’s either value or a desperate attempt to cling to nostalgia.

Undav and Fullkrug are both 80/1, while anyone below them might as well be drawing straws. Want a real gamble? Trincao, Felix, Rafael Leao – 400/1 and beyond. You’d have more luck finding a vegan steak bake in Munich.

 

Half-Time/Full-Time – Drama in Two Parts

Fancy a flutter with narrative? The Half-Time/Full-Time market is where the scriptwriters come to play.

Germany/Germany at 2/1 is the banker’s choice – a comfortable home performance. Draw/Germany at 4/1 is for those expecting a slow burner. For chaos connoisseurs: Portugal/Draw (15/1) or Portugal/Germany (25/1) – the stuff of Twitter meltdowns and tactical rewrites.

Draw/Draw at 5/1 suits the cautious pessimist, while Portugal/Portugal at 6/1 is for the brave, the biased, or the deluded.

 

Correct Score – Because Specificity Is Apparently Rewarded

Let’s not pretend this market isn’t a lottery. But here we go.

Germany 2-1 or 1-0 at 15/2, 2-0 at 9/1, or 3-1 at 14/1. If you’re feeling bullish: 3-0 (16/1), 4-1 (33/1), or 5-1 (80/1). If that last one comes in, we’ll eat a replica Nations League trophy.

Draw backers: 1-1 at 13/2 is the sensible pick. 0-0 at 12/1, for those who like watching football as punishment. 2-2 (12/1)is where things get spicy.

Portugal winning? 2-1 at 12/1, 1-0 at 14/1, and 3-1 at 30/1 are your best bets. Anything over 4-1 starts feeling like someone’s hit the wrong key on the odds sheet.

 

Method of Victory – If You Insist on Predicting Drama

Either team in extra time or on penalties is 5/1. Reasonable enough. Germany on penalties (10/1) and Portugal on penalties (11/1) follow close behind. And if you think the Germans will win it with 117 minutes on the clock, Germany in extra time is 8/1. Not out of the question.

 

Goals, Goals and Slightly Fewer Goals

How many goals? Over/Under markets galore.

Under 4 goals? 1/5 – not much value, but safe as houses.
Over 2.5? 4/5 – probably the smartest play based on recent form.
Want to dream? Over 4.5 at 19/4, Over 5.5 at 11/1, or Over 6.5 at 25/1. If it ends 5-4, we’ll probably still be in the pub talking about it a week later.

 

Winning Margin – For the Pundits Among Us

Fancy Germany to do it by just enough? Germany to win by 1 goal – 3/1, by 2 goals – 9/2, and by 3 – 10/1.
Portugal? Winning by 1 at 11/2, by 2 at 12/1, and by 4 or more? 90/1.
Brave stuff.

 

Corners – Because We All Love a Set Piece

Finally, the Total Corners market – niche, but surprisingly profitable.

Under 11.5 corners at 2/5, Over 8.5 at 8/15, and if you’re feeling precise, exactly 9 corners at 5/6.
Madness lies in Over 14.5 corners at 9/1 or Over 17.5 at 12/1. But if both sides go full kamikaze? Stranger things have happened.

 

Final Thoughts (and Free Bets)

So there you have it – Germany v Portugal. A fixture soaked in history, pressure, and the distinct possibility of tactical bewilderment. If you’re planning to have a flutter, the leading bookmakers have a wealth of UK free bets available for new customers – useful if you’re eyeing one of those juicy correct scores or long-shot goal scorers.

Prediction? Germany to win, 3-1, with Undav netting the opener, Ronaldo looking confused, and Kimmich running the show like he’s ordering bratwurst for 80,000 people.

 

Outright Winner

Germany	5/6
Draw	13/5
Portugal	10/3

To Qualify

Germany	10/21
Portugal	15/8

First Goalscorer

Deniz Undav	6/1
Cristiano Ronaldo	6/1
Niclas Fullkrug	13/2
Florian Wirtz	13/2
Nick Woltemade	13/2
Serge Gnabry	15/2
Leroy Sane	8/1
Karim Adeyemi	8/1
Matias Goncalo Ramos	9/1
Diogo Jota	11/1
No Goalscorer	12/1
Rodrigo Mora	12/1
Joao Felix	12/1
Rafael Leao	13/1
Bruno Fernandes	13/1
Tom Bischof	14/1
Trincao	15/1
Francisco Conceicao	15/1
Leon Goretzka	16/1
Pedro Neto	17/1
Robert Andrich	20/1
Felix Nmecha	20/1
Robin Gosens	22/1
Bernardo Silva	25/1
Joshua Kimmich	25/1
Pascal Gross	25/1

Anytime Goalscorer

Nick Woltemade	2/1
Cristiano Ronaldo	41/20
Deniz Undav	21/10
Niclas Fullkrug	23/10
Florian Wirtz	12/5
Leroy Sane	11/4
Matias Goncalo Ramos	3/1
Karim Adeyemi	3/1
Serge Gnabry	16/5
Diogo Jota	15/4
Joao Felix	4/1
Rafael Leao	17/4
Bruno Fernandes	17/4
Rodrigo Mora	9/2
Francisco Conceicao	21/4
Tom Bischof	11/2
Trincao	6/1
Leon Goretzka	6/1
Pedro Neto	13/2
Felix Nmecha	15/2
Robin Gosens	15/2
Robert Andrich	8/1
Joshua Kimmich	8/1
Bernardo Silva	9/1
Pascal Gross	10/1
Aleksandar Pavlovic	12/1
Ruben Neves	12/1
Thilo Kehrer	12/1
Joao Palhinha	12/1
Robin Koch	14/1
Maximilian Mittelstadt	14/1
Jonathan Tah	14/1
Vitinha	14/1
Joao Neves	14/1
David Raum	15/1
Renato Veiga	16/1
Waldemar Anton	20/1
Ruben Dias	22/1
Diogo Dalot	25/1
Nuno Tavares	25/1
Antonio Silva	25/1
Nelson Semedo	28/1
Nuno Mendes	33/1
Goncalo Inacio	33/1

To Score Hat-Trick

Cristiano Ronaldo	75/1
Deniz Undav	80/1
Niclas Fullkrug	80/1
Nick Woltemade	90/1
Serge Gnabry	125/1
Florian Wirtz	125/1
Leroy Sane	175/1
Matias Goncalo Ramos	175/1
Karim Adeyemi	200/1
Bruno Fernandes	275/1
Diogo Jota	375/1
Trincao	400/1
Joao Felix	425/1
Rafael Leao	500/1
Tom Bischof	500/1
Rodrigo Mora	500/1
Robin Gosens	500/1
Leon Goretzka	500/1
Felix Nmecha	500/1
Pedro Neto	500/1

Half-Time/Full-Time

Germany/Germany	2/1
Draw/Germany	4/1
Draw/Draw	5/1
Portugal/Portugal	6/1
Draw/Portugal	9/1
Germany/Draw	14/1
Portugal/Draw	15/1
Portugal/Germany	25/1
Germany/Portugal	40/1

Correct Score

Germany 2-1	15/2
Germany 1-0	15/2
Germany 2-0	9/1
Germany 3-1	14/1
Germany 3-0	16/1
Germany 3-2	22/1
Germany 4-1	33/1
Germany 4-0	35/1
Germany 4-2	50/1
Germany 5-1	80/1
Germany 5-0	85/1
Draw 1-1	13/2
Draw 0-0	12/1
Draw 2-2	12/1
Draw 3-3	50/1
Draw 4-4	350/1
Draw 5-5	400/1
Portugal 2-1	12/1
Portugal 1-0	14/1
Portugal 2-0	20/1
Portugal 3-1	30/1
Portugal 3-2	35/1
Portugal 3-0	55/1
Portugal 4-1	100/1
Portugal 4-2	125/1
Portugal 4-0	150/1

Method of Victory

Either Team on Penalties	5/1
Either Team in Extra Time	5/1
Germany in Extra Time	8/1
Germany on Penalties	10/1
Portugal on Penalties	11/1
Portugal in Extra Time	14/1

Total Goals

Under 4	1/5
Under 3.5	5/11
Under 3	5/8
Under 2.5	57/50
Under 2	28/13
Under 1.5	7/2
Under 1	10/1
Under 0.5	13/1
Over 2.5	4/5
Over 3	14/11
Over 3.5	2/1
Over 4	18/5
Over 4.5	19/4
Over 5	9/1
Over 5.5	11/1
Over 6.5	25/1
Over 7.5	50/1
Over 8.5	66/1

Winning Margin

Germany to win by 1 Goal	3/1
Score Draw	7/2
Germany to win by 2 Goals	9/2
Portugal to win by 1 Goal	11/2
Germany to win by 3 Goals	10/1
Draw 0-0	12/1
Portugal to win by 2 Goals	12/1
Germany to win by 4 Or More Goals	18/1
Portugal to win by 3 Goals	33/1
Portugal to win by 4 Or More Goals	90/1

Total Corners

Under 11.5	2/5
Under 10.5	8/13
Under 9.5	1/1
Under 9	7/5
Under 8.5	13/8
Under 7.5	29/10
Under 6.5	9/2
Under 5.5	8/1
Under 4.5	16/1
Over 8.5	8/15
Over 9	5/6
Over 9.5	17/20
Over 10.5	7/5
Over 11.5	23/10
Over 12.5	19/5
Over 13.5	6/1
Over 14.5	9/1
Over 16.5	10/1
Over 17.5	12/1
Over 15.5	16/1