Boris Johnson Exit Odds

Update: 07.02.22

Boris Johnson is now a general 1/2 to exit in 2022, the leading UK bookmakers lengthening the odds in recent weeks despite the controversy surrounding his comments to Sir Keir Starmer.

Jimmy Saville

The PM accused the Labour leader of attempting to “prejudice a police enquiry” and he added that he spent most of his time “prosecuting journalists as well as failing to prosecute Jimmy Saville” while in the position of director of public prosecutions, something which clearly didn’t go down too well with Starmer.

Uproar

Many Conservative MPs called on the PM to retract his comments and there was the inevitable uproar in the Commons. Four of the PM’s senior aides have resigned, these consisting of the chief of communications, chief of staff and policy chief.

Betting value

With four senior officials quitting in recent days, it’s not looking too good for the Prime Minister right now. Nevertheless there’s still plenty of value in the betting market with a Johnson exit date of 2023 or later priced at a general 7/5. Meanwhile an exit date of 2024 or later is currently up for grabs at 3/1.

Leadership contest

If Johnson decides not to step down willingly, then the Conservative party will be required to pass a unanimous vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. A total of 17 Tory MPs have thus far submitted letters in favour of this, however 54 will need to submit them in order to trigger a leadership contest.

Replacement

As far as the PM’s potential replacement as party leader will be, Rishi Sunak leads the way with the leading bookies going 6/4 on the Chancellor taking the reins. Foreign Affairs Secretary Liz Truss remains one of the leading contenders at 5/1 while Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt is close behind at 6/1.

Boris Johnson Exit Best Odds

1/2  –  2022

7/5  –  2023 or later

3/1  –  2024 or later

5/1  –  2023

Next Conservative Party Leader Best Odds

6/4  –  Rishi Sunak

5/1  –  Liz Truss

6/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

21.01.22

Boris Johnson continues to face down calls for him to resign following ‘Partygate’, however will the Prime Minister ultimately bow to these demands?

Partying

The Prime Minister is still facing the wrath of the UK public following a series of parties which took place in 10 Downing Street while the rest of the nation was in lockdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  An ever increasing number of allegations are coming to the surface each day and Boris’s position is coming under more and more pressure.

Pressure and support

Indeed many within the Conservative party are of the opinion that the PM’s position is now untenable and a handful of key members have called on Boris to step aside. Given that he is facing a barrage from all sides of the house, will Boris cave in or will he fight on? There is still plenty of support for the PM from within the party ranks, indeed most of his cabinet have leapt to his defence. Nevertheless some key members such as Rishi Sunak have made somewhat paltry efforts to back the PM and this could suggest that a leadership challenge from these members may be on the cards.

Exit date

According to the bookmakers, Boris Johnson is unlikely to last in office until the end of the year with most firms going odds of just 1/3 that his exit date is 2022, hardly surprising given the PM’s current difficulties. The same bookies go around 7/4 that Johnson’s exit date is 2023 or later while odds of 7/2 are available on Johnson still being in charge in 2024 or later.

Next PM

If, as expected, Johnson resigns as PM or is ousted by the Conservative Party by the end of 2022, who will his successor be? The odds continue to shorten on Rishi Sunak being named as the next Prime Minister, the Chancellor now best odds of 5/4 to replace Johnson in Number 10.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Liz Truss has entered the betting market to be named as next PM, the bookies slashing the odds on her taking up residence in 10 Downing Street from 10/1 to a general 5/1. Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt completes the top three in the betting at 7/1, followed by Labour leader Keir Starmer who is a general 10/1 punt.

Starmer hasn’t been a popular option amongst punters with his odds continuing to lengthen despite Labour doing relatively well in recent opinion polls.

Next Conservative party leader

Rishi Sunak is favourite to replace Boris as party leader, whether as PM or otherwise. The Chancellor has been less than forthcoming in his support for the Prime Minister in the wake of the Downing Street parties and he is being tipped by many to be a serious contender for the position of party leader at odds as low as 6/5. Liz Truss is next in the betting at a general 4/1 while Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt complete the top four in the market at odds of 6/1 and 12/1 respectively.

Boris Johnson Exit Best Odds

1/3  –  2022

7/4  –  2023 or later

7/2  –  2024 or later

6/1  –  2023

Next Prime Minister Best Odds

5/4  –  Rishi Sunak

5/1  –  Liz Truss

7/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

10/1 –  Keir Starmer

12/1 –  Penny Mordaunt

Next Conservative Party Leader Best Odds

6/5  –  Rishi Sunak

4/1  –  Liz Truss

6/1  –  Jeremy Hunt

12/1 –  Penny Mordaunt